Emerging market currency rallies to remain checked by erratic sentiment: Reuters poll

JOHANNESBURG - Sentiment for emerging market currencies this year will continue to jump when there is positive U.S.-China trade war news, but risks such as South Africa’s debt problems and Turkish confidence will weigh on gains, a Reuters poll found on Friday.

The survey, taken this week, found 43 of 46 strategists saying sentiment for emerging market currencies for the rest of this year would be dominated by global factors. The Turkish lira has already experienced this trend of short bursts in strength against the dollar despite confidence about its central bank independence and Ankara’s fractious diplomatic relations with the United States.

Both the United States and China appear to have taken steps to de-escalate rhetoric and actions that unnerved markets and policymakers throughout the summer, the note continued.is expected to make modest gains in a year compared to what it has lost since the start of the year, trading in a choppy narrow range in coming months amid some game-changing risks.

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