... [+]The only thing certain is uncertainty. This is true in our careers, our businesses, in preparing your community for the impact of climate change, or in our personal lives. One planning methodology is centuries old, and it’s called “scenario planning,” accordingScenario Planning for Climate Change
“Scenario planning has been around since the 1600’s,” Haigh told me, “yet it remains a cutting-edge approach… is a very transferable way to try to prepare for the future.”To be prepared and make the best decisions, we need to consider all kinds of things that might drive the outcome, and how likely they are to occur.
She described her recommended methodology for doing so to me as follows, using the example of a fictitious “Localbank” doing climate resilience planning:: The focal question in this example for Localbank would be, “how might Localbank be affected by climate change in 25 years. She suggests starting with 25 years, because “it blows people’s minds,” and is generally in everyone’s lifetime.
Haigh pointed out that “you can’t negotiate with any of these drivers,” you just have to deal with what happens.