A Democratic sweep is Temple's base case for the outcome of the presidential election on November 3. But he also acknowledges a divided government, or contested election result, is still possible due to a number of factors. For each of the US election scenarios, he is asking investors to think about the policy implications and the risk-reward balance of those policies for individual securities in their portfolios.
However, if Democrats pursue other policies first, such as social justice issues, then the ending secular stagnation theory is out the window, Temple said. "I don't think this is a story where you basically sell your tech stocks and buy fossil fuels, it's actually the opposite, some of the tech stocks would continue to do well, because some of these infrastructure investment programmes might lift their growth rates," Temple said. "So this is likely to be a stock pickers market, in my mind, with an emphasis on quality, and on returns and count on capital in the market now and into the future.
For healthcare, it also creates a mixed bag. There might be challenges for large pharmaceutical companies in terms of price negotiations for products. However, hospitals could also benefit from a Democrat-controlled administration, with more people having access to hospitals and insurance, which would favor the med-tech and medical devices fields, Temple said.
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One nation, one plan? Wow...that's seen in communist countries 😳 this isn't funny anymore!
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