U.S. Economic Growth Is Peaking And That Means Stocks Could Struggle This Year, Goldman Warns

As the economic benefits of massive fiscal stimulus and businesses reopening reach their peak in the coming weeks, Goldman Sachs analysts are warning that U.S. economic growth will slow, leading to"paltry" stock returns over the next year and an end to the market's massive pandemic rally.Key Facts

U.S. economic growth will peak within the next two months, Goldman analysts said in a Thursday morning note, forecasting that gross domestic product will grow by an annualized 10.

In a sign that fiscal stimulus effects and economic activity are peaking, the ISM Manufacturing index, a monthly economic indicator measuring industrial activity,at 65 in March—above the threshold of 60 that Goldman says typically represents peak economic growth. According to Goldman, the S&P 500 has historically fallen an average of 1% in the month after the ISM Manufacturing index registers more than 60, and in the subsequent 12 months, it's gained a"paltry" 3%—significantly less than the 14% annualized return over the last 10 years.

Goldman expects the S&P will end the year at 4,300 points—implying just a 4% increase from Thursday's close, lower than some other market forecasters who"Equities often struggle in the short term when a strong rate of economic growth begins to slow," a group of Goldman strategists led by Ben Snider said Thursday, noting that during the last 40 years."It is not a coincidence that ISM readings have rarely exceeded 60 during the last few decades; investors buying U.

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