Rising mortgage rates, further macro prudential intervention, affordability constraints, a pick-up in new housing supply and an increase in property listings are expected to significantly cool the red-hot housing market in 2022, before a moderate downturn in 2023, economists and housing market analysts have predicted.extraordinary 22 per cent boom in national dwelling values recorded by CoreLogic
“The main risk on the upside would be a rapid surge in immigration post the federal election to make up for lost immigrants over the last two years, although this is likely to show up initially in higher rents and then higher prices with a lag.”While Mr Oliver was well off the mark when he predicted just a 5 per cent rise in house prices in 2021, so too were many others.
Veteran housing market analyst Louis Christopher, founder of SQM Research, was more bullish than some last year. He forecast average capital city house prices to rise between 5 and 9 per cent in 2021, led by Perth , Sydney and Adelaide .AFR Weekend. This year, Mr Christopher anticipates gains of up to 5 per cent under SQM’s base case modelling, and believes APRA will intervene in the market this year, as it did in October when it increased the interest rate buffer, to ensure an orderly slowdown.
“The 20 per cent-plus gains in house prices over the past year won’t be repeated in 2022,” they said.
Wasn’t part of it also related to wage subsidy like JobKeeper and cash payments to SMEs which kept unemployment lower than expected? Credit risk (person who may default on home loan) is largely determined by whether someone is unemployed as housing is largely a homogenous good.
We beg to differ, big time. And rather than make broad brush statements and overreact to the influence of *one* factor (like interest rates), we’ll reference individual market facts and objective analysis of the sum of all factors