Companies on the S&P 500 — an index that tracks a broad range of sectors such as banks, manufacturing, tech, and retail — are expected to post a 6.8% decline in first-quarter earnings from a year ago, John Butters, a senior earnings analyst atThe projected decline will be the largest since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, when companies reported a 32% slump in earnings in the second quarter of 2020, according to the financial data company.
The estimated 6.8% decline in first-quarter earnings is not just the lowest in two years, but also below the five-year earnings growth rate of 13.4% and the 10-year earnings growth rate of 8.7%, per FactSet. "Analysts and companies have been more pessimistic in their earnings outlooks for the first quarter compared to historical average," Butters added in his note.
FactSet's analysis was based on 106 S&P companies that issued guidance on their first-quarter earnings per share. Out of the 11 sectors on the S&P, six are expecting to report an on-year decline in earnings. Leading losses are companies in the materials, healthcare, IT, and communication sectors services. Consumer discretionary and industrials are expected to lead those reporting on-year earnings growth.the financials sector expects the highest on-year revenue growth rate of 9% among all 11 sectors, FactSet's analysis show.
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