Kitco daily macro-economic/business digest - June 20

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Kitco daily macro-economic/business digest - June 20

In Today's Digital Newspaper Russia says the Black Sea grain deal cannot be extended, but that it will work with poorer countries to ensure that they won't run short on food. Thirty-six countries count on Russia and Ukraine for more than half their wheat imports.

"For business, the issue is not so much China/U.S. relations per se, but the very worrying state of the Chinese economy at present. Awareness of how challenged that is was probably one of the main issues that created a more communicative China, one that is willing to show just a bit of compromise at the moment," said Kerry Brown, a professor of Chinese studies at King's College London and a former British diplomat in Beijing.

A proposed megadeal between grain-trading giants Bunge and Glencore-backed Viterra has led to concerns about reduced competition for farmers, higher food prices for consumers, and potential bottlenecks in the agricultural supply chain. More in Markets section. Meteorologist Michael Berry from the National Weather Service has described the current situation as a"perfect storm." Utility crews from as far away as Michigan and Indiana are working to repair the extensive damage to power lines. More storms are expected over the next few days, though they are predicted to wind down by the end of the week.

A new tropical depression has also formed in the Atlantic and could turn into a hurricane by midweek. It is too early to tell if it will impact the U.S. mainland. In 2022, the average total contribution rate to 401 plans was 11.3% of pay, nearly reaching Vanguard's recommended range of 12%-15%. Despite market turbulence last year, workers maintained their contributions and have benefitted from the stock market's recovery. Retirement plan design, including auto-escalation features that increase contributions annually, has encouraged savings behavior. With the passage of Secure 2.

Chinese lenders followed the central bank by lowering their benchmark rates, although a relatively modest reduction to the mortgage reference rate disappointed investors. The PBOC cut the one- and five-year loan prime rates by 10 basis points each. • Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was, with only the euro showing strength against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was weaker, trading around 3.75%, with global government bond yields mostly lower.

The global sugar deficit has led to tight supply, with consumption outpacing production. High sugar prices, while potentially benefitting sugar sellers, also impact consumers struggling with inflation and farmers who have less to sell. The International Sugar Organization states that mills are maximizing sugar production, but the potential of El Niño's repercussions remains a concern.

Evidence is mounting that Russia was behind the collapse, with an intentional explosion cited as the cause. The New York Times, quoting engineers, suggested that Russia knew the dam's weak spot in the Soviet-era construction and likely detonated explosives there. The U.S. government agrees with this theory. Similarly, the Associated Press and a group of international legal experts claim that Russia had the means, motive, and opportunity to cause the collapse.

CHINA UPDATE — Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently held a long-awaited meeting, signaling progress in stabilizing the strained bilateral relations between the U.S. and China. This meeting in Beijing was the first of its kind since 2018. Xi emphasized the importance of the relationship between the two countries and highlighted some specific points of agreement reached during the two-day visit.

Both countries are facing challenges at home, with the U.S. concerned about China's increasing military activity near Taiwan and hesitance to condemn Russia, while China is grappling with slowing economic growth and worsening foreign investment sentiment. — China and Cuba are in advanced negotiations to establish a joint military training facility on the island, the Wall Street Journal reports, raising alarm in Washington about the prospect of Chinese troops being stationed just 100 miles off Florida's coast. The Biden administration has contacted Cuban officials to try and prevent the deal, tapping into potential Cuban concerns about sovereignty.

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