in a bit below expectations, but the details suggestworkers to payrolls in June, missing expectations for 230,000. In truth, many analysts were expecting an even higher number than the official consensus figure after ADPThe gap between the ADP estimate and the Department of Labor estimate is even starker if we look only at the private sector. According to the Department of Labor’s estimate, private sector employment grew by just 149,000..
The ADP estimate no longer attempts to mirror the Department of Labor figures. ADP says that it is now an independent source of labor market data. But the enormous gaps are a reminder that. Not only is the map not the same as the territoryThe Department of Labor’s figures for past months were revised down by 110,000 jobs. The April figure was slashed from 294,000 to 217,000 and the May figure from 339,000 to 306,000.but not quite as hot as it seemed with the earlier estimates.
. Importantly, we are continuing to grow payrolls faster than population growth. So, even though hiring is slowing, the labor market remains very tight. The unemployment rate fell back to 3.6 percent even as the labor force participation rate held steady for the fourth consecutive month at 62.6 percent.has only shed jobs in one month, according to the Department of Labor’s estimates. For a slice of the economy that is supposed to be highly sensitive to rate changes, this is surprising.
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