CIBC economist Andrew Grantham appears to be moving from the ‘Bank of Canada will not hike this month’ camp to the ‘will hike’ view.
“Following last month’s 25bp rate hike from the Bank of Canada, most forecasters instantly predicted a follow up move at next week’s July meeting … We weren’t convinced with that argument, as with interest rates already at quite high levels we suspected that the Bank would need a further accumulation of evidence that the economy is outperforming expectations in order to warrant pulling the trigger again so soon.
The list as it stands now is CF Industries, Nutrien, Capstone Copper, First Quantum, Norsk Hydro, Ivanhoe Mines, Pilbara Minerals, Adriatic Metals PLC., Centamin, G Mining Ventures, Gold Fields, Northern Star Resources, Pan American Silver, Regis Resources, Royal Gold, Cameco, Ecora Resources, Champion Iron, Glencore, Mineral Resources, South32 and Teck Resources.
– We think ESG rate of change will be a critical focus for investors looking to identify companies that can generate alpha and ESG impact. 6.- Decarbonising steelmaking will trigger the biggest transformation of the industry in decades … 8.– Saudi Arabia is undergoing an unprecedented transformation with sweeping social and economic reforms, $1 trn in gigaproject commitments, and rapid demographic shifts… 9.
“After a solid 1H, US outperformance may go on pause. We downgrade the US to Neutral, while upgrading Europe to Overweight. The European market is trading at a record discount to the US and is pricing in a more reasonable EPS growth path. We continue to forecast a 5% global EPS contraction this year and a modest 5% expansion in 2024 . Our forecasts imply a modest EPS slowdown, rather than a full EPS recession.