It may be time for U.S. stocks to underperform their European counterparts, according to UBS global equity strategist Andrew Garthwaite. "We think that there are good idiosyncratic reasons why the US should underperform," the strategist said in a note to clients. First, UBS thinks the global economy has reached a point that would make American companies more vulnerable. Historically, when global purchasing managers indexes rise more than 2 points over six months, the U.S.
This gap is now set to close quite sharply as US excess savings have largely been used and US immigration is likely to be peaking," Garthwaite wrote. .SPX .STOXX YTD mountain SPX vs STOXX 600 UBS also listed the U.S. fiscal policy as a risk factor. The U.S. currently has a massive $34.7 trillion debt load. The budget deficit for 2024 is running at $1.2 trillion with four months left in the fiscal year. In 2023, the shortfall totaled $1.7 trillion.
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