) autonomous driving unit, has seen increased adoption in recent years. As per analysts at Morgan Stanley, by 2025, Waymo could make up a low to mid single digit percentage share of the rideshare markets in key cities like Phoenix and San Francisco.
This rapid scaling is further supported by its expansion into new geographies, including neighborhoods in Los Angeles, airport services in Phoenix, and the San Francisco Peninsula. The base case suggests that Waymo will achieve a 4% market share in Phoenix and 3% in San Francisco. This corresponds to a projected revenue of $76 million in Phoenix and $64 million in San Francisco in 2025.) is critical to achieving these numbers, as some trips in Phoenix will be conducted through the Uber platform. This partnership is expected to contribute to Waymo's ability to secure a portion of Uber’s gross bookings in these regions.
Morgan Stanley highlights that the pace of city launches will be a crucial factor in determining the size of Waymo's business by 2025. These projections do not include the potential revenue from new city launches, which could further accelerate growth.