A new report from the Canadian Chamber of Commerce is sending a stark warning ahead of the U.S. presidential election, saying protectionist policies like Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs could damage economies on both sides of the border.
Both presidential candidates have campaigned on protectionist policies that could cause uncertainty for Canadian trade. Whoever takes the White House will be in charge during the review of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement in 2026.
The report, which used models to estimate the impact of the tariffs if they become permanent, suggested the move would reduce the size of the Canadian economy between 0.9 and one per cent, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.Things would be even worse if other countries retaliated with tariff walls of their own. In that case, Canadian incomes would fall by 1.5 per cent and productivity by 1.6 per cent, the report said.
Nixon’s tariff lasted only four months before it was reversed, but research has found it resulted in a 2.6 per cent reduction in total imports into the U.S. from Canada. The new report said the Canada-U.S. economic relationship is massive, deeply interconnected and mutually beneficial. There are also cross-border investments, as well as exports that are harder to track in services like tourism or technology.
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