We're entering the tailend of the year, a historically strong period for small caps. But this year could be different. Wolfe Research strategist Rob Ginsberg pointed out that one-third of Russell 2000 stocks are flashing a sell signal in terms of the moving average convergence/divergence technical indicator. "The past few instances of this have marked near term peaks," Ginsberg wrote. This comes as the small-cap benchmark has struggled lately.
"The question of the hour seems to be 'do we rally into year end?'. History would imply yes. Between 1994-2023, the last two weeks of the year saw the Russell 2000 up ~2% on average," he said in a note. "The Russell 2000 continues to peel back since briefly breaking out to a new high. With support at 2300 … we anticipate this pullback presenting a buying opportunity – but as we know, timing is always tough," he added.
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