Given the trends seen so far, it looks probable that in many of those states, the in-person vote released on election night could favor Republicans while the later arriving mail ballots shift those races towards Democrats. in the primary elections that have taken place June 2 and after found the late mail-in ballots in most states have been "overwhelmingly Democratic.
"This means in practical terms on election night that in states where the smaller counties are easier to count and their votes are coming in and skew more Republican, you could have a false expectation of victory that would not be justified as mail-in votes come in later in the week," Couvillon said.
This scenario may not occur in a presidential election where one candidate wins in a landslide. But it could play out in dozens of other key congressional and state-level races. "If you have massive mail-in votes and an inadequate amount of time to count it, I could see multiple swing states being uncalled on election night," Couvillon said. "And basically it ends up being this big, long delay...where every day you're getting this kind of back and forth" between who leads the vote. Something is loading.
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