In a weekend report to clients, economists led by Jan Hatzius predicted the economy would expand 6.6% this year, faster than the 6.4% previously expected. The unemployment rate for the end of 2021 is now seen at 4.5%, down from the prior estimate of 4.8%.
The upgrade is fueled by expectation that Biden, aided by a Democratic-controlled Congress, will deliver ample amounts of state fiscal aid, education and public health spending, as well as unemployment insurance benefits, to counter harm from a pandemic now in its most devastating stage to date. Goldman’s estimate for 2021 economic growth is the second highest in a Bloomberg survey of 84 economists; the median estimate is 4.1%.
While the economists don’t expect all parts of Biden’s proposal to pass, they predict that an additional $1,400 in individual stimulus payments will cause a “large spike” in disposable income in the first three months. On Thursday, Goldman raised its estimate for the amount of“We now forecast nominal disposable income will grow in 2021 by +4.5%” versus the previous estimate of 3.8%, according to Goldman’s latest note.Goldman expects gross domestic product growth of 4.3% in 2022 and 1.
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