Ukraine crisis re-focuses world investment themes

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If a global geopolitical shift of that magnitude is underway, it surely follows that a similarly seismic, multi-year shift in the global investment landscape is also upon us

“A major geopolitical realignment is taking place,” which, like 9/11, “shapes major governments’ foreign and military policies unpredictably for years to come.”

The immediate playbook for investors will be to “de-risk,” and pile into the safest or most liquid assets. This means moving out of stocks, credit, and emerging market assets, and into U.S. Treasuries, top-rated government bonds and the dollar.“We are likely to see military, infrastructure and cybersecurity spending in the West not only increased but also speeded up,” Stefan Kreuzkamp, chief investment officer at DWS, wrote on Tuesday.

Germany’s Rheinmetall AG jumped a record 25 per cent on Monday and gained a further 18 per cent on Tuesday to hit a new high of 159 euros a share. Military sensor maker Hensoldt rocketed 42 per cent on Monday and added a further 20 per cent on Tuesday to 25 euros a share. Europe, which depends on Russia for about 40 per cent of its natural gas, will reduce that dependency and seek alternative sources. Italy’s foreign minister said on Monday that Rome will buy more from Algeria.

Germany’s government is preparing to speed up passage of the Renewable Energy Sources Act through its parliament so that it can come into force by July, according to a document seen by Reuters.

 

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