How much more pain is about to hit Russia’s economy? Can oil rise even higher? U.S. inflation data is due on Thursday, the same day the European Central Bank holds a crucial policy meeting.After a barrage of Western sanctions, Russia’s economy will see a sharp economic contraction and spiking inflation. Debt default risks are on the rise.
It’s also been tough to work out the full extent of the damage. Asset managers will be hoping for more clarity on just how little their Russian investments are worth, if anything. War in Ukraine has tempered expectations for aggressive Fed rate hikes but a stronger-than-expected inflation print might rekindle chances of a more hawkish stance. That would hurt risk assets, already rattled by Ukraine-linked uncertainty.
ECB plans are in turmoil and big decisions on Thursday appear unlikely. President Christine Lagarde may be pressed on whether she expects a rate rise, having last month walked back on a pledge not to lift rates this year.TRIPLE WHAMMYWestern sanctions on Russia hit banks exposed to that country’s companies or hold assets there.
The annual session of China’s rubber-stamp parliament runs from Saturday for about a week, setting the main economic and policy goals for the year. The key word is stability.
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