In a shock to the market, Anglo American reminded everyone that mining is neither easy nor predictable. It’s great to be in a favourable energy cycle with strong commodity prices, but it doesn’t help if production takes a substantial knock.
In addition to rainfall, production issues were driven by supply chain challenges and associated shortages of equipment and spare parts. Kumba even highlighted the negative impact on rail lines of the plague of locusts in the Northern Cape. We seem to live in biblical times. With a deal that incorporates an employee scheme, a community trust and an offer to the black public, Old Mutual is trying to tick all the ownership boxes. The shares will be issued at a 15% discount to the market price, which Old Mutual justifies based on the lock-in period applicable to the investments. This is known as a liquidity discount.
There aren’t many BBBEE ownership schemes available for black retail investors in the market, so Old Mutual is unlikely to struggle to get the deal away. Investors should go in with eyes wide open, as this investment is no less risky than any other equity investment on the market.Speculative turnaround stories are full of risks. Even when things seem to be going well, the wind can change direction quickly and punters can find themselves with a share price that is heading down the drain.
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