surge. Canadians tie their level of wealth to their homes and, as prices fall, so will consumer willingness to spend on big ticket items, denting earnings, she added.
“Housing prices have corrected significantly over the last four months and that has an impact on the balance sheet of Canadians, but also on consumer confidence,” Marks said. At the same time, Mackenzie is boosting its outlook on U.S. shares to neutral from underweight. While Canada’s benchmark S&P/TSX Composite index has handily outpaced the S&P 500 this year, the growth-stock heavy U.S. gauge has been regaining ground in recent weeks amid better-than-expected earnings, narrowing the gap between the two to the smallest since February. The S&P/TSX is about eight per cent lower this year, while the S&P 500 has slumped 14 per cent.
“A hawkish Bank of Canada fighting elevated inflation, record-setting gas prices, and rising concerns of recession have many investors cautious on the consumer discretionary sector,” Belski wrote in a note last week. “While these risks are certainly meaningful headwinds for the consumer, our work shows they have been largely priced in, with the sector reaching extreme levels of underperformance in early July, while valuations have normalized to historical averages.
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