Soft landing hopes for US economy brighten outlook on stocks

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NEW YORK, Aug 13 — Optimism is seeping back into the US stock market, as some investors grow more convinced that the economy may avoid a severe downturn even as it copes with...

NEW YORK, Aug 13 — Optimism is seeping back into the US stock market, as some investors grow more convinced that the economy may avoid a severe downturn even as it copes with high inflation.

“We have experienced a fair amount of pain, but the perspective in how people are trading has turned violently towards a glass half full versus a glass half empty,” said Mark Hackett, Nationwide’s chief of investment research. “If in fact a soft landing is possible, then you’d want to see the kind of data inputs that we have seen thus far,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth. “Strong jobs number and declining inflation would both be important inputs into that theory.” Through Thursday, the S&P 500 was up 1.5 per cent for the week, on track for its fourth straight week of gains.

Volatility targeting funds could soak up about US$100 billion of equity exposure in the coming months if gyrations remain muted, said Anand Omprakash, head of derivatives quantitative strategy at Elevation Securities.Investors next week will be watching retail sales and housing data. Earnings reports are also due from a number of top retailers, including Walmart WMT.N and Home Depot, that will give fresh insight into the health of the consumer.

Some investors have grown alarmed at how quickly risk appetite has rebounded. The Ark Innovation ETF, a prominent casualty of this year’s bear market, has soared around 35 per cent since mid-June, while shares of AMC Entertainment Holdings, one of the original “meme stocks”, have doubled over that time.

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