The US is about to start a largely untested experiment in monetary policy amid great uncertainty as to its effects. They could be benign or create a liquidity crisis in financial markets.
While the world has had substantial experience of quantitative easing , or the purchases of bonds and other securities – Japan pioneered QE at the start of this century – it has little experienced of quantitative tightening .There was a brief period between 2017 and 2019 when the Fed started to allow its post-GFC purchases to run off – at about half the rate at which it is about to reduce its $US8.
The paper looked at what happened to the liquidity demands on banks during QE and whether they shrank during the earlier episode of QT. That led the researchers to question whether the banking sector would, under QT, shrink the claims it has written on liquidity – the deposits the banks have taken and the lines of credit they have raised -- at the same pace as the central bank withdraws reserves and suggest that this could lead to tightened liquidity conditions and the greater possibility of episodes of systemic liquidity stress.
How much QT pushes up US rates is, however, probably of less consequence than the potential for unexpected impacts, with liquidity “events” and asset market crashes being the most obvious.
The Fed: Kicking the can down the road since 2009.
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