Sales in the GTA were down to 5,627 units in August, a year-over-year decline of 34.2 per cent, while the average house price rose by a tiny 0.9 per cent, according toBut TRREB’s quality- and size-adjusted Home Price Index is a better indicator of price movements, because smaller and hence lower-priced homes might sell more frequently during slowdowns, which can lower the average price.
It appears a lot depends upon how the metrics are generated. For example, instead of comparing current sales and prices with those from the same period a year ago, you could make the peak housing sales activity in March 2022 the benchmark. Any comparison with March will exaggerate the declines.Sales in the GTA in August were down 48.3 per cent from the peak sales observed in March, a much more significant decline than the 34.2 per cent drop from August last year.
The shift from expensive to cheaper homes contributes to the decline in average home prices. But the decline in average prices does not necessarily mean that the price of an average or typical home has also declined by the same rate, because average prices are being computed for housing whose quality and size vary considerably over time.Article content
But what is ignored in such pronouncements is a phenomenon known as the “forward buy,” where consumers move up their purchases to benefit from a rebate or avoid paying an expected new tax later.
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