The S&P 500 index traded at new intraday and closing lows for 2022 this past week. That move exacerbated oversold conditions that have been building for some time. Such oversold conditions can produce sharp but short-lived oversold rallies, which is what happened on Sept. 28.
The two circles on the accompanying SPX chart are island reversals – a very bearish formation, which is rarely found on an index chart. Regardless, those set the tone for the current leg downward. Breadth has been very poor on the most recent market decline of the past two weeks. As a result, both breadth oscillators are on sell signals and are in deeply oversold territory. Even though Sept. 28 was a “90% up day,” these oscillators are going to need at least two and maybe three more days of positive breadth to generate buy signals.
But VIX has also given us a shorter-term buy signal, as it fell back more than 3.00 points from its most recent peak , and that creates a “spike peak” buy signal. The “B’s” on the VIX chart are previous “spike peak” buy signals. A red B denotes a successful trade, while a blue B is a losing trade. One can see that this system – while quite profitable over the years – has not fared well in its last two attempts.
If established, this trade’s target is for SPX to trade at the upper, +4σ Band. The stop for this position would be if SPX were to close back below the -4σ Band.
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