Bond-market recession gauge flirts with milestone as global growth fears mount

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The spread on 2- and 10-year Treasury yields intermittently shrinks below minus 75.3 basis points and touches levels not seen since October 1981.

One of the bond market’s most reliable recession indicators flirted with a new milestone on Tuesday, by trading at its most negative level since the first year of Ronald Reagan’s term as U.S. president.

The spread between 2- TMUBMUSD02Y and 10-year Treasury yields TMUBMUSD10Y touched an intraday low of minus 75.8 basis points. In other words, the 10-year yield traded 75.8 basis points below the yield of the 2-year note. If it finishes the New York session there or even lower, the spread would be at its most deeply inverted level since October 1981, when the fed-funds rate was at 19% under then-Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker.

The deepening inversion comes as traders fret about more COVID-19 incidents in China, where more than 253,000 cases have been found in the past three weeks, according to the Associated Press. China is the only major country still trying to curb the virus through widespread restrictions on movement and mass testing: Beijing, for instance, has locked down parks, districts, stores and offices.

 

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