Interesting. Four minutes before this tweet, I heard the exact opposite from **checks notes** CNBC.
4/ The US strategic investor - Sheatsheet macro & market key popular relationships derived from manuals : -Put your scenario in economic variables -Use standard assumptions on parameters when needed -Calculate a strategic forecast, beyond the cycle
2/ BIG FREEZE scenario – Gordon & Rifkin Rifkin ? Inflation = 0 « The Zero Marginal Cost Society » Gordon ? Productivity = 0 « The I.T. revolution is less important than any one of the five Great inventions » Then assume MegaQE from Fed to save the economy
3/ FAST TRACK scenario – Productivity 2.0 & Rarefaction & ageing Higher GDP -ML + BigData fueled labor productivity -A.I. robots fueled TFP Higher prices -Warming : Rarefaction of ressources -Ageing : life cycle theory, you save when your work, you spend when retire
1/ beyond cycle - EXPERT scenario – Fed & CBO & IMF & OECD Mic forecasts of these 4 institutions We assume : Equity risk premium = 4 % Credit risk premium = 3 % Bond term premium = 1 % All are long term average
They say that because their livelihoods depend on people being optimistic and investing. They always say the same thing: Next year is going to be great. Many times it is true, sometimes it is not.
Like in 2007.
Why are you using such an old chart? S & P closed Friday at 2400 and change.
Umut veric