Why the stock market isn’t as forward-looking as investors might think when it comes to a recession

Investors think of the stock market as forward-looking, but valuations often price in an earnings recession only after “it is knocking on the door,” warns Lauren Goodwin, an economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments.

U.S. earnings results typically serve as the last domino to fall in terms of economic data heading into a recession, Goodwin said in a Tuesday note to clients. She also said that while corporate margins have held up, revenues have been declining in most industries, particularly in the technology and consumer-discretionary sectors, which have benefited from the recent rally in stocks.

“The recent rally may have begun from reasonable valuations and low investor confidence, but it reflects a temporary increase in liquidity and a monetary policy pivot that, in our view, is not coming,” Goodwin said.

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