Business economists see recession in 2023 despite recent signs of hope

The survey, which was conducted by the National Association for Business Economics early this month and released Monday, found that 58% of participants predict a recession coming in the next 12 months. Still, the survey showed a lot of disagreement among economists, with some asserting a recession is all but certain and others saying the odds of a downturn are very low.The recession fears come even as there were some signs of hope in January that the economy might side-step a recession.

On average, economists expect GDP growth to be largely stagnant this year as the economy struggles under the weight of rising interest rates. The median projection for real GDP growth is 0.3% from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the fourth quarter of 2023. They then expect GDP growth to pick back up in 2024 and average about 1.9% next year.

The economists expect the unemployment rate to tick up to 4.4% by the first quarter of 2024 and then to average 4.3% in 2024 as a whole. Still, some of the economists surveyed expect the unemployment rate to trend up to as much as 5.7% this year as the labor market finally feels the shock of high-interest rates.

The debt ceiling is also an issue that has gotten attention this year and will inevitably because one of the biggest economic stories of the year as the U.S. approaches the so-called “X-date,” when the government could default on its obligations.

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