U.S. stocks would be in much worse shape in 2023 if it wasn’t for “excessive” fiscal policy from the government and explosive money-supply growth in recent years.
That’s the latest take from Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, the bank’s chief investment strategist who, as MarketWatch’s Steve Goldstein pointed out earlier, seems to never miss an opportunity to recall how wrong his market calls have been this year. In an accompanying chart, Wilson noted that fiscal spending looks particularly excessive when compared with the U.S. unemployment rate, which fell to 3.5% in July, according to data from the Department of Labor released on Friday.
And after hanging on to his bearish view for months in spite of a powerful rally in equities driven by the artificial intelligence craze and a surprisingly resilient U.S. economy, he’s recently taken the opportunity to reflect on why he got it wrong, while acknowledging the possibility that the rally could continue.
It’s possible, even likely, that the government’s excessive spending could continue, at least until it comes time to raise the debt ceiling again in 2025. The biggest problem with spending so much during good economic times, however, is that it limits Congress’s ability to act when another recession inevitably arrives.
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