These financial market signals are telling a different story about China's economy

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'The curious thing, though, is that such doom and gloom is not reflected in what the market is signaling,' Gavekal's Louis-Vincent Gave wrote.

Xi Jinping makes a public pledge of allegiance to the Constitution at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing on March 10, 2023.China's economy is stumbling, but financial markets don't indicate that it will lead to a systemic crisis."The curious thing, though, is that such doom and gloom is not reflected in what the market is signaling."

After a first-quarter bounce, China's economic rebound from zero-COVID policies has been disappointing, with factories and consumers slowing down. Meanwhile, foreign investors have withdrawn in droves, with Beijing's attempts to support its marketsFocusing on the banking sector, he noted that the share price performance of lenders tends to drop months ahead of any systemic crisis, as had happened before 2008 global financial crisis.

Gave also pointed out that iron ore prices, which are sensitive to China's economy, have jumped 50% from their October 2022 low.

 

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Chip stocks: Why Secretary Raimondo’s China visit mattersU.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo visited China this week in a bid to ease some of the tensions between the United States and China. Axios Global Tech Correspondent Ryan Heath joins Yahoo Finance Live to discuss what this means for chipmakers and for the future of U.S. and China relations. Investors and chipmakers should be “mildly encouraged” about communication between the United States and China, Heath says. “The more transparency, the more dialogue, the better for you as a chipmaker,” Heath explains. “U.S. exports to China are still basically at record levels and that also includes for some forms of chips” and the “broad environment is still reasonable encouraging,” Heath notes. Heath says Raimondo 'is extremely well regarded by the White House' and 'is treated as a serious player by the people she is talking to in Beijing, you know, that’s exactly the right person that you want there having these discussions. It doesn’t guarantee any outcomes in the future, but it gives you a solid basis for having a more functional relationship.”
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