In my August 4th update, Stock Market Weakness Likely, I pointed out that the market was likely to pull back, and as long as that weakness did not decisively violate the lower end of its up-trending channel, the market’s longer-term advance is still intact.The blue up-trending lines are a price channel that defines the market’s current uptrend.advanced to the top of the channel at the end of July and its MACD Indicator was at the top of its range.
In the chart below is SPY in the upper panel and a relative strength chart in the middle panel. When the relative strength chart line rises it indicates that the S&P 500 is outperforming theThroughout last year’s market decline Consumer Staples consistently outperformed the market as indicated by a falling relative strength line .
I have highlighted each rise in the relative strength line and it coincides with strength in the S&P 500 this year. Below is a chart of the S&P 500 in the top panel and relative strength charts for three commodity-related ETFs. When their relative strength lines fall it indicates they are underperforming the index and when they rise it means they are outperforming.