As the price of oil surged in the past three months, most rapidly after Saudi Arabia and Russia earlier this month extended their supply cuts, shares of airline companies have taken a beating. Earlier this month, a gauge for airline stocks — the S&P Supercomposite Airlines Industry Index — tumbled into a bear market, extending a steady and fast decline from the most recent highs touched in mid-July.
“Fuel is the biggest risk to airline profits right now,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst George Ferguson said in an interview. “Airlines had lower fuel prices dialed into ticket prices for the third quarter and then oil moved dramatically. I don’t think airlines saw it coming.” Jet-fuel makes up roughly 25% of major US airlines’ annual operating expenses, but had risen to nearly 30% in the first quarter of 2023, before dipping closer to 20% in the second quarter, according to BI data.
The group rebounded on Friday, slightly paring some of the decline, led by the larger carriers — United Airlines Holdings Inc., Southwest Airlines Co. and Delta Air Lines Inc.The latest rise in the price of oil comes at a time when airlines are also struggling with high labor costs and falling demand for domestic travel as US consumers get squeezed by high inflation.
On the other hand, some are of the opinion that the rush of third-quarter warnings and the recent selloff have removed uncertainties and positioned the stocks for some gains. In fact, the airline index has now moved into a so-called oversold zone — a technical indicator that suggests the gauge has fallen too far, too fast — indicating it may be due for a reversal.