Interest rates are sure to be higher-for-longer, and Wall Street is having a tough time getting used to the idea and finding ports in the resulting storm.
Unfortunately, for many on Wall Street and Main Street, the impact of higher interest rates is being felt, even though it isn’t always being reflected in economic data. Lenders have seen delinquency rates tick up to prepandemic levels as pandemic savings have been spent down. A close second to cash would be ultrashort-dated Treasuries—those with maturities between one and six months—yielding roughly 5.5%. It’s a tactic recently favored by investing guru Warren Buffett. He told CNBC in August that his Berkshire Hathaway has steadily been buying three-month and 6-month T-bills even as ratings agency Fitch downgraded U.S. debt in August. But that downgrade doesn’t affect the U.S. dollar’s standing as the reserve currency of the world, Buffett said.
While yields on U.S. Treasuries have certainly surged, data from 22V Research suggests that yields haven’t surged so much that they’re going to crush growth. In fact, 22V Research has generally been encouraged to see the rise in yields in longer-dated Treasuries as a yield curve, which is still inverted, is showing signs of normalizing.
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