3 market implications from the Israeli war

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The shocking new war in Israel could affect oil and gasoline prices in 2024, along with President Biden's reelection odds.

Just about every US president gets a Middle East crisis, and President Biden now has his. The war between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas group, which attacked Israel on October 7, could be long and complex. Iran, which backs Hamas and seeks the destruction of Israel, might be involved. Israel has vowed a massive operation in Gaza, which Hamas controls, and months or even years of urban warfare there are likely to be grueling and ugly.

“We see more support for tighter oil supply and higher oil prices over the longer term as diplomatic progress on a security deal with Saudi Arabia is likely to face significant headwinds during a period of heightened military activity in the Middle East,” Raymond James analysts wrote in an October 8 report.

The Israeli war may create a fresh opportunity for Congress to approve that aid. Russia is an ally of Iran, which is Israel’s sworn enemy and perhaps a co-conspirator in the Hamas attacks. So it could become politically more difficult for some members of Congress to snub Ukraine, since that favors Russia and by extension Israel’s nemesis, Iran.

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