All the usual indicators of the end of a cycle are not present, and we do not believe they will be for another five years and maybe even longer.While some market forecasters still believe a recession could be looming for the United States soon, we believe the current economic and market cycle could extend for another five more years.
We see six positive signs in the markets and economy that underlie our belief this cycle still has plenty of room to run:Some might say this bull market is getting long in the tooth, but by historical standards it isn’t. Twice in the past century – in the ’40s and ’50s, and the ’80s and ’90s – there have been bull markets that lasted much longer. But even analyzing the staying power of a bull market by its length in years is wrong; the age of the cycle doesn’t inform us about its health.
Even the once high-flying “FAANG” stocks – Facebook, Alphabet, Apple, Netflix, and Google ̶ have experienced significant declines in their valuations. But we don’t think that will persist. We expect investors will once again be willing to pay up for growth, as they historically always have, in a growth-starved world.
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