Emerging-market stocks are coming off a tough quarter after facing down a triple threat of rising Treasury yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and a lackluster recovery in China’s economy and markets.The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF EEM, which tracks the widely followed MSCI Emerging Markets Index, fell 4.1% during the quarter ended in September, outpacing a 3.7% decline for the S&P 500 SPX, the deeply liquid U.S. benchmark. Both benchmarks endured their worst performance in a year.
In a research note shared with MarketWatch, a team of equity strategists at Goldman Sachs Group GS, +0.69% pointed out that emerging-market stocks excluding China had outperformed developed-market stocks excluding the U.S. so far this year. To that end, a chorus of investment bank equity strategists along with big-name investors like GMO’s Jeremy Grantham have said a similar dynamic could play out in emerging markets.
Developing economies have more rosy growth prospects, according to the International Monetary Fund, which released its latest batch of projections on Tuesday. At the same time, paralysis in the U.S. Congress has raised concerns about potential political instability diminishing the attractiveness of the U.S. As House speakers are deposed and budget battles rage, some on Wall Street expect Moody’s Investors Service could join Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings in stripping the U.S. of its AAA credit rating, as the agency has threatened to do.
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