The $20 billion 30-year Treasury auction went off at the highest rate since 2007 at 1 p.m. in New York Thursday. Within minutes the S&P 500 Index tumbled, falling as much as 1.2% before regaining its footing. The Cboe Volatility Index, also known as the VIX or Wall Street’s fear index, spiked above 17. And the selloff in the small-cap Russell 2000 Index accelerated, pushing it to it’s lowest close in months.
But sentiment reversed after the 30-year Treasury auction, which drew weak demand and weighed heavily on the broader market sentiment. Swap contracts linked to future interest-rate decisions pushed the odds of another quarter-point hike back to about 50%, up from about 30% as recently as Wednesday. The Treasury auction was awarded at 4.837%, nearly four basis points higher than its yield in pre-auction trading at the bidding deadline. Demand fell short of dealers’ expectations, despite being the highest-yielding long-bond auction of its kind since 2007.“While Treasury auctions really only have an impact on the day of it in terms of market reaction, it’s still a messaging signal on demand,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group LLC.
If Thursday’s drop in the S&P 500 holds, it would snap a four-day winning streak — the longest since August — that came after a number of Fed officials said the rout in bond markets may cancel out the need to raise rates again. The message was reiterated on Wednesday, when Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the central bank can watch and see what happens before taking further action.
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