The five-year US Treasury note yield has been lower than the three-month Treasury bill yield since March 7, a key recessionary signal if it stays this way for a full quarter.
The alarm in the bond market first rang in December, when the US three- and five-year Treasury yields"inverted" — a signal from credit markets than can often predict recessions. The latest curve inversion is what Harvey calls one of"four horsemen" predicting potential recession. Here they are:A quarter-long inversion in the three-month and five-year Treasury yield curves
. The study found that half of CFOs are planning on a recession at the end of 2019 or first part of 2020. 82% believe a recession will start by the end of 2020.The probability of a US recession just spiked the most in 30 years — UBS says 'even we are surprised by this'
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The bond market is flashing a major buy sign for stocks, says Jim PaulsenWorried investors searching for meaning in the bond market and its relationship to stocks may feel vindication after this week. They would be wrong, says Jim Paulsen. Support the system!!!
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Jeffrey Gundlach says the stock market was and still is in a bear marketAfter a stellar rebound, Jeffrey Gundlach still thinks stocks are in a bear market. wait & see time so we should shift to bull market soon.. or at some point :) What is his definition of a bear market.
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'Don't trust the strong rally': Morgan Stanley warns stocks aren't out of the woods just yetThe stock market's rally so far this year shouldn't be trusted, Morgan Stanley equity strategists said in a new report. LiveSquawk Don't look for accurate stock market news from BusinessInsider
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