RBC Capital Market’s bank research team, led by Darko Mihelic, published a 39-page report discussing the upcoming mortgage payment shock on domestic earnings in the sector,
“We believe a significant number of mortgages are coming due in the next three years and that payment shock could be significant and represents a tail risk to Canadian banks.
“Over the past month, we have been arguing that the chances of a 4Q rally have fallen considerably. Our observations on narrowing breadth, cautious factor leadership, falling earnings revisions and fading consumer and business confidence tell a different story than the consensus, which sees a rally into year-end that’s based mostly on bearish sentiment and seasonal tendencies.
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