The Stock Market Had Its Best Week in Nearly a Year. Earnings Say Watch Out.

The market’s fear gauge says to expect calm. The response of individual stocks to earnings has been anything but. Don’t be surprised if turbulence returns sooner rather than later.

No wonder the Cboe Volatility Index, or VIX, which measures expected S&P 500 volatility and signals the degree of uncertainty, fell to 14.9, down from an October peak of almost 22. That’s a sign that investors, after a brief panic, have stopped worrying and learned to love the market again. On average, though, the market has done more punishing than rewarding. Shares of companies that beat earnings and sales estimates have advanced just 0.3% on average, according to Evercore ISI data, while companies missing forecasts on both have dropped 4.8%. That 5.1-percentage-point gap is wider than the historical average of 4.1 points, while the gain is smaller and the loss is bigger than they typically have been.

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