The S&P 500 was up by 0.4% in morning trading on Tuesday as voters in Ohio, Kentucky, Virginia, and Mississippi headed to the polls to decide on local races and contentious issues like abortion rights. That is right in line with the historical pattern.
From 1970 to 2022, the S&P 500 moved an average of 0.32% on the days when elections were held, usually in the first week of November, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Sixty percent of the time, the index was up. Much of the volatility can be traced back to a few years with unusually large market swings. But those gyrations usually stem from economic conditions, rather than the fact that people are voting.
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