Tenacious stock market heads into new quarter aiming to show it's not beholden to the Fed's rate plans

If the market were a sport and a game lasted a year then the betting apps' win-probability charts would be skewed way in favor of the bulls at the end of the first quarter. This isn't simply a function of the score, with the S & P 500 up more than 10% and a majority of stocks now participating in the advance. It's also about how the odds for the next few quarters fall, based on what we've seen so far. .

If recent signs of consumer fatigue and loosening labor-market conditions gather pace, it wouldn't take much to get a "Fed is behind the curve" scare running through markets. Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, has been bullish on bonds and still is overweight them, but feels the likely easing scenario is already priced into intermediate- and long-term Treasuries.

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Jim Cramer's top 10 things to watch in the stock market WednesdayStock futures move lower as investors await the Fed's latest rate decision and press conference.
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Stock market today: World shares are mixed as markets await a rate decision by the FedAsian shares have closed mostly higher while European markets opened lower as investors awaited the latest signals from the Federal Reserve on the timing of cuts to interest rates.
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