Semiconductor Stocks Q4 Overview: AI Gains Heat Up

Semiconductor stocks are standout performers so far in 2024, with investor appetite for AI stocks remaining elevated as AI chip leader Nvidia continues its streak of high growth. Numerous chipmaking equipment and chip stocks outperform the broader indices on a YTD basis – sixteen have YTD gains above 20%.

significantly above our guidance range, as sales of components shipping and smartphones exceeded our expectations, driven by strength in orders from our largest customer. Shipments stayed strong throughout the quarter, including the first holiday week, and we also benefited from an additional week of revenue in the quarterThree of the Street’s AI favorites — Micron, Arm, and Nvidia — all beat revenue estimates by 7.6% to 8.8%.

AI server demand is driving rapid growth in HBM, DDR5 and data center SSDs, which is tightening leading-edge supply availability for DRAM and NAND. This is resulting in a positive ripple effect on pricing across all memory and storage end markets. We expect DRAM and NAND pricing levels to increase further throughout calendar year 2024 and expect record revenue and much improved profitability now in fiscal year 2025There should be no surprises here, with Nvidia and Micron leading the way with 82.

Nvidia trades at 19.8x forward sales and arguably deserves this premium valuation due to its unrivaled position on GPUs and the raw earnings power this is driving; in addition, this 19.8x multiple surprisingly is a slight discount to the 21.7x average PS multiple Nvidia has traded at over the past 5 years.

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Mizuho Analysts Highlight Favorite Semiconductor Chip StocksAnalysts at Mizuho have identified their favorite semiconductor chip stocks and expect a trough or bottom in 2024. They see robust and improving fundamentals in NAND and SSD pricing, benefiting WDC, SIMO, and MU. MU is the most owned and liked, while WDC and SIMO are NAND flash pricing and SSD beneficiaries. Mizuho also notes that Samsung may raise SSD pricing by 25% in Q2, potentially leading to an 'out of stock' situation and benefiting MU, WDC, and SIMO.
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