between economic theory and real-world economic conditions, and reminded readers that economics is still a social science, despite whatever loftier ambitions its practitioners may have. Nonetheless, when it comes to the specific question of what drives economic growth in the long term, one can still offer rigorous predictions by focusing on just two forces.
Now consider what has actually happened. Growth in the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, China, and India has come close to what we predicted. But the same cannot be said for the eurozone, Brazil, and Russia, whose poor performance must reflect weak productivity, given that our predictions had already accounted for demographic trends.
It is also worth noting that the US and the UK registered growth close to the level we predicted despite their weak productivity gains, owing to the rapid increase in employment in both countries. But with the unemployment rate having reached near-historic lows, and with public policy turning against immigration, it will be mathematically impossible to achieve the same level of employment growth in the decade ahead. For overall growth to continue, productivity must improve.
Meanwhile, unless Brazil and Russia reduce their dependence on the commodity-price cycle, they will only ever experience strong growth during price spikes. With or without reform, Russia is already heading for another disappointing decade as a result of its demographics. Brazil, on the other hand, could register growth close to what we originally predicted if it could implement difficult social and health reforms. But that is a big “if.
เราได้สรุปข่าวนี้มาให้อ่านอย่างรวดเร็ว หากสนใจข่าว สามารถอ่านฉบับเต็มได้ที่นี่ อ่านเพิ่มเติม:
ประเทศไทย ข่าวล่าสุด, ประเทศไทย หัวข้อข่าว
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BUSINESS MAVERICK – 2019 ELECTIONS: What the manifestos reveal about the parties’ economic policies (Part 1)Unpacking the manifestos of the three main parties contesting the 2019 general elections – the EFF, DA and ANC – it is hard not to come away feeling a bit underwhelmed.
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Business Maverick Analysis: Who has to register as a credit provider under the National Credit Act?Did you know that if you make a loan to a friend or even a family member for any amount, you have to register under the National Credit Act? Crazy? Yes, but it’s the law. And if you don’t, the loan is unenforceable. This year turned out to be very difficult. But we have optimized and reduced the cost of our products! It is almost impossible to find prices lower than ours, the sale is at the cost price level. Watch and be surprised by our super low prices https://is.gd/72jG3I
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BUSINESS MAVERICK: The balance in SA’s bloody strike at Sibanye-Stillwater’s mines tips slightlyThe strike at Sibanye-Stillwater’s three critical gold mines is a classic power battle between NUM and Amcu, overlaid on top of another classic power battle between Amcu and the company whose CEO Neal Froneman is one of the shrewder operators that Amcu boss Joseph Mathunjwa has had to deal with for some time. The balance has tipped slightly in the company’s favour, but the outcome is still far from certain.
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Business Maverick: Are South African cellphone companies becoming a new form of African government ATM machine?First, the Nigerian government imposed massive fines of MTN in disputed circumstances for notional regulatory infractions. Now the executives of Vodacom’s Tanzanian business have been arrested and charged with ‘economic sabotage’. Is a trend emerging of African governments targeting foreign cellphone companies?
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Business Maverick: Namibia Commits to Rand Peg as Economy Limps Out of SlumpNamibia is ruling out dropping its currency peg with the South African rand “unless something very drastic happens,” given the close trade links to its larger neighbour and the drive by the world’s biggest producer of marine diamonds to recover from a two-year recession. Surprised(not really), that the ANCorrupt, hasn't called RandrANC(i)d .
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Business Maverick: Ayo Ex-CIO Says South African Company Is Partly IllegitimateAyo Technology Solutions Ltd. is at least partly an illegitimate business and has fabricated financial statements even while securing a R4.3-billion investment by the Public Investment Corporation, according to Ayo’s former chief investment officer.
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BUSINESS MAVERICK: Right of Reply: Brazilian dumpers doth protest too muchA recent Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy competitiveness study proved that South Africa has a globally efficient industry, yet Brazilian chicken floods our market in such volumes that it exceeds the production of even the biggest local producer. This is not ‘helping to meet local demand’ or ‘ensuring healthy competition’ — this is doing material damage to an industry that is a significant provider of employment and food security in South Africa.
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