Sarb’s leading business indicator points to economy remaining weak

It looks like people need to prepare for worsening times if the leading business indicator published by the South African Reserve Bank is anything to go by.

“The only positive contributors were a widening of the interest rate spread and an increase in South Africa’s US dollar denominated export commodity price index.”The largest positive contributor to the leading business indicator was a widening of the interest rate spread . Statistics SA found in its recent analysis of SA’s exports and imports that the value of exported commodities declined nearly 5% in March 2024 compared to a year earlier. From February to March this year the value of exported commodities decreased by 1.2%.

In addition, this is based on current prices and the real decrease will have been worse once inflation is factored in. In terms of exports, China is SA’s biggest trading partner, followed by the US, Germany, Mozambique and the UK, according to the South African Revenue Service . China reported GDP growth of 5.3% in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 2023, boosted by an increase of 6.1% in industrial production.

These included the average hours worked per factory worker in manufacturing and the volume of orders in the manufacturing sector , and the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index.

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