U.S. stocks edged lower on Friday as traders reacted to new economic data signaling slowing inflation and better-than-expected consumer sentiment.All three major indexes advanced in June, marking their seventh positive month in eight. The Nasdaq led with a nearly 6% monthly gain, while the S&P 500 and Dow rose 3.5% and 1.1%, respectively. For the week, the Nasdaq added 0.2%, while the S&P 500 and Dow edged down by less than 0.1%.
For Friday’s employment report, Goldman Sachs economists expect that non-farm payrolls rose by 140,000 in June. Economists also project that the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4%, reflecting rising household employment offsetting a 0.1 percentage point rebound in labor force participation to 62.6%.
The first half of 2024 marks the 26th time the SPX has gained between 10% and 20% in the initial six months. This pattern suggests a positive outlook, with the index historically rising 88% of the time in the second half, averaging a return of 8.58% and a median return of 10.13%. "When the SPX rallies over the first six months of the year, the index is stronger over the rest of the year and is up 74% of the time on average," BofA strategists said in a note.: “As we enter the second half of the year, we are left with more questions than answers. Namely the breadth expansion that was occurring in late '23 fizzled out and was never able to find its footing despite cooling inflation and lower long-term rates.
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