An economy can weather a lot of storms, but stagflation can hit it like a tsunami. The concept broadly refers to a state of affairs where the economy is barely growing or contracting, jobless rates are high and inflation – which should be subdued in such an environment, according to classical economic theory – accelerates rapidly.
This is probably optimistic given the threat posed by load shedding and potential ratings downgrades, among other things. With this backdrop, one would expect inflation to be nothing but moderate, perhaps even dis-inflationary. But pressures are building in the price pipeline. On Thursday, Statistics South Africa released producer price data for March.
The main measure of consumer inflation, CPI, was 4.5% in March, up from 4.1% the previous month, so it is also bubbling. This does not mean it will come to a boil. Higher producer prices may not automatically get passed onto consumers, in large part because of the bearish factors weighing on prices in the first place.“This makes it almost impossible to pass on those increases without losing market share. “ This means that producers have to find ways to trim costs and boost productivity.
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Business Maverick: The spectre of stagflation is haunting South Africa and the alternative is also scarySouth Africa's economy does not have a lot in its favour at the moment. Relatively moderate inflation in recent years has been one of the few bright spots. Even this has been a mixed blessing as it partly stems from subdued demand. This could change soon, with price pressures unrelated to consumption building in the economy. Against the backdrop of anaemic growth and sky-high unemployment, this could unleash the spectre of stagflation. And if prices do remain subdued, it is only because of the dire state of the economy. No clear policy and leadership ! Just corruption from thieving, bent MYANC and CyrilRamaphosa who can’t stop it and won’t! MoodysAnalytics MoodysAnalytics WSJ business PIMCO FT Davos GoldmanSachs jpmorgan
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BUSINESS MAVERICK: China, South Africa and the middle-income trapChina and South Africa seem so distant and so different. Chinese economic growth has been fabulous; over the past decade, South Africa’s has been miserable. China is enormous; SA is small… and so on. But in one singular respect, China and South Africa are similar — they may be both caught in the middle-income trap. If there is such a thing.
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Business Maverick: Gold worth billions smuggled out of AfricaBillions of dollars' worth of gold is being smuggled out of Africa every year through the United Arab Emirates in the Middle East – a gateway to markets in Europe, the United States and beyond – Reuters analysis has found. David Lewis, Ryan McNeill and Zandi Shabalala report on the extraordinary and rising problem of gold smuggling out of Africa. It used to be called 'artisanal'. Now its big business.
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Business Maverick: Banks Entice South African Millennials With Rap, Free FoodFrom free burgers and ride-hailing services to hip-hop concerts and discounted gasoline: South African banks are going all out to win customers as competition hots up.
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Freedom Day in South Africa - a reminder of unfinished businessAs South Africa marks 25 years of freedom, many citizens have to contend with the harsh reality that they can't eat democracy. You cannot change the past, but you can change the future. Stop digging in the past otherwise this country will stay in the past As I’ve recently learnt the truth around the world is that first you need a liberator to set you free the you need freedom from your liberator... voteforchange ..And also can we talk about our successes?! GrowSouthAfrica GrowGauteng VoteANC
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Freedom Day in South Africa - a reminder of unfinished businessAs South Africa marks 25 years of freedom, many citizens have to contend with the harsh reality that they can't eat democracy. Only on FREEDOM day.... May 8 unfinished business ANC will be re-elected Freedom to employ Bell Pottinger
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Business Maverick: Impact investing could bridge the socialist/capitalist divideA conference this week examined one of the trickiest issues of our day: why is it proving so difficult to mobilise retirement funds to aid social upliftment? Meanwhile, inequality is rising and threatening to become a political time bomb, environmental crises are increasing, tax revolts are looming, and levels of violent social unrest could become unmanageable. Is there a solution? Cue impact investing.
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Business Maverick: Wednesday April 24: Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayTwitter helps stocks fly to a record high, Netflix returns to the junk bond market and Islamic State claims responsibility for the deadly attacks in Sri Lanka. Here are some of this morning’s key stories.
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Business Maverick: Asian shares up after Nasdaq, S&P 500 hit record highsEquity markets in Asia rose on Wednesday morning after upbeat earnings helped the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes reach record closing highs on Wall Street overnight, while oil retreated from its near six-month highs.
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Business Maverick: Eskom `Is Not on the Brink of Financial Collapse,’ Gordhan SaysSouth Africa’s state-owned power utility “isn’t on the brink of financial collapse” and the government has the problem “well under control,” Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan said. Agreed. It is WAY beyond that already. Had it not been for its corrupt benefactor .............🤔
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Business Maverick: Tanzania denies blocking release of scathing IMF reportTanzania on Tuesday denied blocking the publication of a critical International Monetary Fund report that accuses President John Magufuli's government of undermining economic growth with 'unpredictable and interventionist' policies.
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