“We do not know how or when these trade issues will be resolved,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Tuesday. “We are closely monitoring the implications of these developments for the U.S. economic outlook and, as always, we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”
Economists at Barclays now project the Fed will reduce rates by 0.5 percentage point in September and by another 0.25 percentage point in December. Previously, the bank expected the Fed would be on hold through 2020. Similarly, economists at JPMorgan Chase are forecasting a quarter-percentage-point cut in both September and December, even if the U.S. avoids a lasting trade fight with Mexico.
Yields have tumbled over the past few weeks, a sign investors expect poorer growth prospects and potential rate cuts. The 10-year Treasury is down from 2.426% two weeks ago, and it now sits well below yields on three-month Treasurys, a so-called inversion of the yield curve that has often preceded rate cuts and recession.
Analysts have reassessed their Fed outlooks by incorporating the reaction in bond markets to Mr Trump’s decision last week to impose tariffs on Mexico to push the country to stem Central American migration at the southern border. Senate Republicans threatened Tuesday to block the tariffs, hours after Mr. Trump indicated he was prepared to go ahead with the levies barring a last-minute deal over border security.
The uncertainty reflects the Fed’s predicament. Officials have approvingly cited instances in the 1990s in which the central bank successfully reduced rates to take out “insurance” against a potential downturn. But some officials may be reluctant to make such moves in the current environment in which geopolitical surprises, not economic ones, are the main issue.
Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said the speed with which trade tensions have escalated suggests there is the potential for a similarly speedy resolution. “I want to take a little bit more time and be patient here because some of these recent events could be reversed,” Mr Kaplan said in an interview in Chicago. “We’re very cognizant of these downside risks and very cognizant of the change in the shape of the yield curve,” he added.
เราได้สรุปข่าวนี้มาให้อ่านอย่างรวดเร็ว หากสนใจข่าว สามารถอ่านฉบับเต็มได้ที่นี่ อ่านเพิ่มเติม:
ประเทศไทย ข่าวล่าสุด, ประเทศไทย หัวข้อข่าว
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Business Maverick: Liquidity risks haunts China’s fast-growing bond marketsJust as Beijing is opening up to outsiders its byzantine regulatory framework and patchy trading volumes could cause a shock in the country’s debt market. But pravingordhan must be held account him and PresJGZuma there is no difference all have violated the constitution. Pravin is not above the law. Did u get that clear?
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Business Maverick: SA Needs `Robust Action’ to Cut Fiscal Gap, IMF SaysSouth Africa needs to take “robust actions” to reduce its fiscal deficit and reverse the increase in public debt, the International Monetary Fund said Let’s explain that to Cyril “the tortoise” Ramaphosa But we have a govt unable to make the really tough decisions
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Business Maverick: Emerging markets buffeted by trade tariff surprisesEmerging markets have taken the brunt of the pain as Trump’s trade announcements send investors to the perceived safe havens. But many of these countries are trading at attractive valuations, with mixed economic fundamentals, so savvy investors could well be winners if they take the time to sort the wheat from the chaff.
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BUSINESS MAVERICK ANALYSIS: SAA: Time for a Business Unusual approachNews of the resignation of SAA CEO Vuyani Jarana has aroused a binary response: If a private sector CEO with the credibility of Jarana cannot turn the airline around, then SAA is a basket case that must be placed into business rescue or sold. Alternatively, the narrative goes that Jarana’s departure is directly linked to Public Enterprises Minister Pravin Gordhan, who interferes and micro-manages, but denies crucial support when needed. The truth, as usual, is likely to be far more nuanced. sashaplanting What bs article, a donkey speaking!!!!!
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BUSINESS MAVERICK: Why has the JSE performed so poorly?That the local stock exchange has performed spectacularly badly for investors in recent years is no secret. The detail of why is unfortunately too often overlooked.
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Business Maverick: Shock as SA’s first-quarter economic growth shrinks by 3.2%Days after President Cyril Ramaphosa pledged to implement his economic reform plans during his inauguration, the latest economic growth figures underscore the urgency in which he has to fix SA’s broken economy. During the first quarter, the economy recorded the largest contraction since the global financial crisis 10 years ago. It’s the first time the impact of recent rolling blackouts on the economy is laid bare. All the fantastic ideas from MYANC led by CyrilRamaphosa led to this, they only think of ways to destroy the economy. Soon they will run out of tax revenue and then uncle Tom cannot be blamed anymore. We need to make SA a tax heaven with no BEEE etc, allow everybody than can create jobs to go wild in doing so, use the army to stabilize security, and then investors may return to create jobs Incompetence reigns supreme !
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BUSINESS MAVERICK: South Africa’s carbon tax raises questions and hot airAs of Saturday 1 June, South Africa’s government is taxing carbon. This policy is designed to make polluters pay and help the continent’s most industrialised economy meet its targets to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases linked by most scientists to climate change – the burning ecological issue of our era. But is it an appropriate policy for a developing economy with energy-intensive industries?
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Business Maverick: SAA CEO Jarana resigns, placing SAA’s turnaround plan in questionNot again. Not another one. SAA CEO Vuyani Jarana has resigned, becoming the eighth SAA CEO to resign in the space of six years, raising the question of whether the airline is now so run down from years of mismanagement and corruption that it's possible to save it at all. And there is the niggling issue of whether government even wants to save it.
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Business Maverick: Tuesday, June 4: Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your DayThe technology industry is girding for sweeping investigations into its business practices and FAANGS got hit by the news. Asia equities are in the green despite a U.S. selloff. And China warns students on the growing risks of seeking a U.S. education. Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.
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BUSINESS MAVERICK ANALYSIS: Tongaat Hulett scandal raises more red flags about governance in corporate South AfricaCorporate South Africa has long prided itself on its sophistication, governance ethos and commitment to the highest global standards of accounting and transparency. A strong corporate culture and deep and liquid financial markets for years set South Africa apart from many of its emerging market peers. That is starting to unravel, with Tongaat Hulett the latest South African company to signal that it will have to ‘restate’ profits because they were not up to scratch first time around.
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