Despite no signs of an overheated market, investor caution surged following the FOMC's warning of a 'cautious' 2025. This led to a sharp decline in BTC, erasing much of the gains from the recent election cycle. Many investors took profits at the $94K price point, realizing over $7.17 billion in profits. This exit of weak hands is often seen as a healthy retracement.
With BTC now approaching $100K, it remains to be seen if new capital is entering the market or if the recent decline keeps investors cautious. Short-term holders' SOPR hit 1.04, indicating those with less than five months of exposure were cashing out. Additionally, BTC inflow into exchanges reached a five-month high, leading to a dip to $92K, its lowest point in two weeks. However, BTC rebounded with a 4% jump, returning to the $98K-$100K range. While buying has increased, it's not aggressive enough to signal full 'accumulation'. Looking ahead, BTC could range between $100K-$105K as New Year excitement builds. However, a new ATH still seems distant. The 'risk' factor remains significant. Recent declines may deter new capital from entering the market. Historically, the first quarter has been bullish for Bitcoin, with limited supply meeting high demand. However, current metrics suggest Bitcoin might deviate from this pattern
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