Investors have triggered a recession signal with a perfect 50-year track record — and one expert says years of 0% market returns could be in store

and startled the market, there's been a debate about whether the recession warning sign was for real.

A yield curve inversion occurs when short-term bond yields top their longer-dated counterparts, and is a sign investors are deeply worried about the economy. Since it's happened before each of last seven recessions, it's considered one of the most trustworthy recession signals. And it's flashed recently as the trade war prompted an investor flight to safer assets..

Bannister says his yield curve measurement inverted on June 20. His projections about the timing of a market sell-off and recession are based on historic averages of what happened before previous downturns.

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