Berenberg Chief Economist Holger Schmeiding noted Thursday that despite an extension being off the table, the tone from British and European leaders has softened, with both sides floating possible compromises over governance, level playing field provisions and politically sensitive fisheries. But despite signs of progress, Berenberg does not expect a deal before year-end.
"Instead of one big cliff edge, where the U.K.-EU economic relationship suddenly shifts from open single market rules to the much more restrictive World Trade Organisation rules for trade, we expect the two sides to see to it that the switch occurs in a series of smaller steps." "We also believe markets have been exaggerating the risk of the Bank of England reducing rates into negative territory, a potential drag on the pound," the UBS note added.
More wishful thinking than factual thinking
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